Rate Cuts, Solana Seeker, and the Neiro vs. NEIRO Debate
Fifth edition of the Ryze Roundup.
Market Commentary
On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made a decisive move by cutting rates by 50bps, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5.00%. This marks a shift from the more gradual approach seen during the 2020 rate-hike cycle, when the Fed began with a modest 25bps increase during the COVID-19 crisis. We view this as a front-loaded rate cut, signaling the Fed’s determination to tackle inflation aggressively and stay “ahead of the curve.” This suggests we are likely at peak dovishness, barring any major economic downturns.
Interestingly, the market had largely anticipated this move, with Fed Funds Futures pricing in a probability of over 60% for a 50 bps cut. However, only 9 out of 114 economists polled by Bloomberg had predicted this outcome. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections indicates an additional 50bps rate cut in 2024, followed by a further 100bps reduction in 2025. During the press conference, Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to a data-dependent approach, noting that further 50bps cuts are unlikely in the near future.
We remain optimistic about risk markets, as global liquidity is expected to gradually increase, with easing monetary policy contributing to expanding liquidity conditions.
“Ryze research shows that for the last several years crypto prices, including Bitcoin, have been influenced by international macroeconomic conditions more than any other single factor. Given that crypto is fundamentally a risk-on asset class, in our view the shift to a regime of lowering interest rates represents a significant bullish catalyst.” – Matthew Graham, managing partner.
Key News and Events
Solana Seeker Launch
Solana Mobile has officially launched its second Web3-focused smartphone, the Solana Seeker, building on the success of the earlier Solana Saga. Initially introduced as "Chapter Two" earlier this year, the Seeker has already attracted significant attention with over 140,000 preorders across 57 countries. This reflects the growing interest in Solana's mobile-first approach to crypto integration.
The Seeker comes with notable upgrades in both hardware and software. It features a lighter build, a brighter display, an improved camera, and extended battery life—all at a more competitive price point. Pre-orders are available at a special Founder price of $450 until September 21, 2024, after which it will retail at $500.
One of the device’s standout features is the integrated Seed Vault Wallet, developed in collaboration with Solflare. The wallet integrates seamlessly with the device’s built-in self-custodial seed vault, enabling users to perform transactions with a simple double-tap and manage their accounts more efficiently. The collaboration enhances both the security and ease-of-use for crypto users, making the web3 experience smoother.
The Solana Mobile dApp Store has also received significant updates, with zero fees and crypto-friendly policies. The store now offers improved navigation and discoverability, hosting a wide range of decentralized applications across verticals such as payments, DeFi (Decentralized Finance), DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), NFTs, AI, and gaming. A new rewards tracker helps users manage all their incentives in one place, while exclusive content for Seeker users is already in development.
Each Seeker device includes a unique Seeker Genesis Token, a non-transferable NFT providing exclusive access to rewards, offers, and content within the Solana ecosystem. This allows developers to engage directly with committed members of the Solana community, positioning the Seeker as a hub for cutting-edge dApps, DeFi platforms, games, and more.
The Seeker's launch has spurred collaborations that expand its capabilities:
Helium Mobile is offering Seeker users four months of free coverage, plus opportunities for exclusive network mapping. Through DePIN integration, users can earn rewards simply by using their device.
Moonshot by Dexscreener introduces Seeker-specific optimizations, enabling users to launch projects and automatically allocate them to other users with a single click. Projects launched on Seeker benefit from increased visibility within the community.
Leveraging Solana's integration of AI, Seeker users can utilize Alethea AI to generate tokenized AI agents. These agents interact on-chain with programs and the Solana community, opening new avenues for engagement and earning opportunities.
Parallel Colony, a Web3 gaming platform, will offer Seeker-exclusive assets and rewards when its game launches on the dApp Store alongside the Seeker.
Airship by Helius Labs provides a zero-knowledge compression tool, dramatically lowering the cost of airdrops. What previously cost $40,000 for distribution to the Solana Mobile pre-order community now costs as little as $100, with automatic allocation to Chapter 2 Preorder Token holders.
“Although we are bullish on other ecosystems as well, notably TON, the intersection of innovation and experimentation and real product market fit continues to be on the Solana square of the crypto board and Ryze doesn’t expect that to change any time soon.” – Matthew Graham, managing partner.
With the Seeker, Solana Mobile delivers the full Solana ecosystem right into users' pockets. The device's intuitive design and integrated tools make it easy to interact with decentralized applications, DeFi platforms, NFTs, and more—just as easily as using any mainstream app. By reducing barriers to entry and improving usability, the Seeker is poised to onboard the next wave of crypto enthusiasts, empowering both seasoned users and newcomers to explore the potential of web3 technology on the go.
Neiro and NEIRO: The Battle Between the Real and Fake “WU KONG”
Following the passing of Kabosu, the beloved mascot of Dogecoin (DOGE), its owner adopted a new dog named Neiro, sparking the rise of multiple meme projects under the same name in the crypto market. This section focuses on two Ethereum-based Neiro projects.
To differentiate between them, we'll use capitalization:
Neiro (lowercase) has the token address 0x812ba41e071c7b7fa4ebcfb62df5f45f6fa853ee.
NEIRO (uppercase) has the token address 0xee2a03aa6dacf51c18679c516ad5283d8e7c2637.
On September 6, NEIRO was listed on both OKX and Binance, sparking backlash from the community. Prior analysis revealed that NEIRO had engaged in insider trading, with approximately 78% of its tokens pre-allocated—a clear violation of the community’s expectations for fairness in meme project launches. The community also criticized OKX and Binance for listing NEIRO, accusing them of compromising their neutrality.
In response, Binance issued an official announcement 10 days later, on September 16, stating that they would list "First Neiro on Ethereum" (Neiro) for spot trading. From its listing price of $0.0000377, the token has since surged by over 2,500%.
On September 17, Binance co-founder He Yi addressed community concerns in a post on Binance Square, offering insight into their listing decisions. Key points included:
Meeting user demand: A project must demonstrate strong community interest and engagement.
Long-term vision: It should show potential for sustainable growth and long-term viability.
Reliable business model: The project must deliver real value to users and the ecosystem through responsible management and revenue generation.’
“Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) and other novel consensus mechanisms are cornerstone technologies in crypto. Unfortunately, for all the genius of the on-chain consensus mechanisms that power our entire industry, crypto continues to lack the ability to achieve off-chain coordination with respect to ethical and professional norms. This fundamental inability to self-regulate has held back the industry for years now and has been a root cause of some of the industry’s biggest catastrophes as well as a significant blocker to more material mainstream adoption.” – Matthew Graham, managing partner.
In today's market, community support is critical to a project's success. While we may see more debates on trivial issues like uppercase and lowercase in the near future, the ultimate deciding factor will still be the strength of the community. Let's wait and see.